A new analysis of 22 updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) shows that many EU Member States are falling short of the bloc's 2030 climate targets. This briefing, led by Ecologic Institute in collaboration with the New Climate Institute and Reform Institute, identifies critical gaps in national contributions to the EU targets and projected policy impact across key areas.

Where Countries Are Falling Behind

The EU's climate goals include cutting greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Regulation, increasing renewable energy, boosting energy efficiency, enhancing carbon sinks, and ending fossil fuel subsidies. However, the analysis reveals:

• Contribution gaps in renewables and energy consumption.
• Policy gaps in most countries, where planned measures are insufficient to meet national targets.
• Limited progress on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies – only Latvia provides a full plan for ending both direct and indirect support.

These gaps mean the EU risks missing several of its 2030 objectives, especially under the Effort Sharing and LULUCF regulations.

What Needs to Happen

The report urges Member States to update their NECPs with stronger targets and policy measures, particularly in renewables and efficiency. It also calls on the European Commission to request further NECP updates in 2025 and revise the Governance Regulation to ensure more consistent and accountable planning across the EU.