At the conference on "Water and Climate Change in the MENA-Region", organised by GIZ and BMZ, Rodrigo Vidaurre, Researcher at Ecologic Institute, held a presentation on policies that address the link between human security, water conflicts, and Climate Change. Jennifer Möller-Gulland, Researcher at Ecologic Institute, held a further presentation on innovative benefit assessment methodologies to assess quantitative and monetary benefits from improved water resources use.

The Mediterranean region is a climate change "hot spot" – an area that scientists say will experience strong climatic changes. Climate change projections show that it can expect decreases in precipitation of up to 30% and increases in temperature exceeding 4 -5 °C. Unless action is taken, hydrologic changes will lead to water scarcity and reduced agricultural productivity as consequence. The conference, organized by the GIZ and BMZ on 28-29 April 2011, seeked to address adaptation, mitigation and best practices to climate change and water scarcity applicable to the MENA region. It aimed to bring together decision makers, representatives of water ministries and education institutions from the MENA Region, representatives of German water industries, German teaching and research institutions, and German development cooperation.

The conference objectives included:

• To discuss with international experts the impact of climate change on water resources in the Arab region.
• To elaborate adaption and mitigation strategies on local and regional levels.
• To analyse the role of IWRM in the climate change aspects.
• To assist the needs for capacity building activities to deal with the situation.
• To discuss the possibilities of technologies and research application in the region.
• To discuss the contribution and role of the civil society and the private sector.

The Ecologic Institute was invited to share relevant insights from two currently ongoing projects, namely Social and economic benefits of enhanced environment protection in ENP countries (ENPI) and Climate Change, Hydro-conflicts and Human Security (CLICO).

Based on the country study of Israel, Jennifer Möller-Gulland presented methodologies which were developed and applied to assess the quantitative and monetary benefits of improving water resource use and its adaptation to climate change within the ongoing ENPI project. Quantitative benefits of improved water resource use are assessed by means of an in-depth assessment of water footprints in the agricultural sector, including production and trade patterns. The analysis illustrated that Israel could decrease current agricultural water demand by around 50%, which equals 96% of potable water used annually in agriculture, by adjusting production and trade patterns based on water footprints. The monetary benefits of improved water resource use can be assessed by the application of the rationales of "costs of water supply uncertainty" in agriculture and of "costs avoided" from water produced by desalination. The resultant benefits to farmers due to decreased water supply uncertainty, by e.g. increased wastewater reuse, are estimated at EUR 136 million (NIS 712 million) annually. Improved water resource use may lead to a reduced demand of desalinated water, which can be monetized at 0.36€/m³. For the full assessment, including the assumptions and framing conditions, please consult the Presentation [pdf, 86 kB, English] and the Conference Paper [pdf, 255 kB, English].

Whereas Climate Change is often related to increased conflict and issues such as migration, there is little to no empirical research that addresses this link. The CLICO project analyses in a variety of approaches both historical and current data to ascertain the nature of this relationship, as well as that with related aspects such as vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and institutions. Rodrigo Vidaurre presented interim results of Ecologic Institute’s analysis of policies in the MENA region which are good-practice, in that they improve societal resilience to conflict due to hydro-climatic hazards. Two regional policies were highlighted. In Egypt, the establishment of Water User Associations, which are participatory in nature and which collectively organize water extraction, has helped reduce conflicts between the "upstream" and the "downstream" users of irrigation infrastructure; previously, it was often the case that upstream users used up the water allocated to downstream users. This change in water management approach increased the food security and the economic situation of downstream users, reduced their risk of crop failure, and increased water use efficiency. In Turkey, the introduction in 2005 of an agricultural insurance scheme which covers most climatic hazards (but excludes droughts) has improved the situation of small and middle farmers. This measure, which improves the farmers’ situation by distributing the risks associated with crop failure due to climatic hazards, will help farmers sustain their livelihoods. In Turkey, the problems of the rural population to sustain their livelihoods is one of the drivers of migration of rural population towards urban centres, which often results in poverty and conflict over resources in peri-urban areas. For further information, please consult the Presentation [pdf, 55 kB, English] and the Conference Paper [pdf, 91 kB, English].