The EU-ETS Price Through 2030 and Beyond

The EU-ETS Price Through 2030 and Beyond

A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions

Event: Digital Event
Date: 30 November 2022, 1:30-3:00 pm
Location: online
Speaker: Benjamin Görlach

While policymakers are currently mulling over the EU-ETS reform, it is a good time for analysts and scientist to take a step back and discuss the analytical tools used to project the outcome – specifically: the expected, predicted or necessary carbon price(s) towards 2030. To that end, the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Ecologic Institute organize a workshop in Brussels on 30 November 2022.

In this back-to-back webinar, we present the key findings from this workshop, and also clarify the importance of long-term ETS prices for achieving the EU’s climate targets. The second part of the webinar is reserved exclusively for questions by online participants.

Welcome by moderator (B. Garside, Carbon Pulse)
Opening remarks by O. Edenhofer (Chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), Director PIK): Why we should care about the ETS price in 2030 and beyond?
Synthesis of key overarching findings by organizers (M. Pahle, PIK, and B. Görlach, Ecologic Institute)
Views by participating modelling-teams: E3M, Enerdata, Kobize, Refinitiv, BNEF, ICIS, PIK
Q&A with webinar participants [45 min]

Contact

Benjamin Görlach

Head, Economics and Policy Assessment

Senior Fellow

Deutschlands Klimaaußenpolitik: Kontext – Rückschau – Weiterentwicklung

Ariadne-Analyse

Year 2024

Publication:Report

A coherent German foreign climate policy is essential for the success of the national and European energy transition, as well as for the effective support of ambitious climate policies outside the European Union. This Ariadne background paper provides cornerstones and discusses options for the elaboration and further development of Germany's foreign climate policy. To this end, it distinguishes four categories of relevant goals: traditional climate policy goals, industrial policy goals, security and trade policy goals, and broader foreign policy goals. For each goal, it is necessary to identify appropriate means by which it can be achieved and barriers that stand in its way and need to be considered accordingly.

Eckpunkte zur Entwicklung einer Klimaaußenpolitikstrategie Deutschlands

Ariadne-Hintergrund

Year 2023

Publication:Report

This paper is a slight adaptation of the German-language analysis "Wasserstoffimportsicherheit für Deutschland – Zeitliche Entwicklung, Risiken und Strategien auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität", published in December 2021. The analysis takes a close look at Germany’s future need for hydrogen imports, hydrogen import-related risks as well as strategies to secure hydrogen imports.

Securing Hydrogen Imports for Germany: Import needs, risks and strategies on the way to climate neutrality

Ariadne-Analysis

Year 2022

Publication:Conference Paper

This document presents main takeaways and insights from a workshop organised by the Ariadne Project in Brussels on 30 November 2022. The workshop convened experts from seven organisations that operate carbon market models – academic institutions as well as carbon market analysts.

The EU-ETS Price Through 2030 and Beyond: A closer look at drivers, models and assumptions

Input material and takeaways from a workshop in Brussels

Year 2022

Event:Conference

With the Fit-for-55 package about to be put into law, and the RePowerEU plan adopted in response to the energy crisis, EU climate and energy is undergoing the most profound change in years, getting the EU on track to a post-fossil energy system. In a three-day series of events, partners from the Ariadne research project presented key insights from their work that is relevant for the further development of EU climate and energy policy, and discussed these with representatives from political institutions, academia, civil society and business. The events served to share research insights, to discuss and validate findings and their relevance for EU policy process, and to gather inputs for further research.

Shaping EU Climate and Energy Policy: Insights from and for the Ariadne Project

30 November - 2 December 2022
Brussels, Belgium

Publication:Article

Social concerns around introducing a carbon price for transport and heating fuels (ETS2) are legitimate. But the EU Parliament overshot the mark in its aspiration to cushion households, which becomes apparent in its request for changes to the Social Climate Fund (SCF), write Michael Pahle, Nils aus dem Moore and Benjamin Görlach in their article for EURACTIV.

How to Make ETS2 Work for Climate and People

Year 2022

Publication:Report

In this Ariadne publication, experts from Ecologic Institute, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Stiftung Umweltenergierecht, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research and IER Stuttgart analyzed various options for the relief and level of the CO2 price – and identified advantages and disadvantages as well as implementation requirements of different design options. The focus is on two key political points of contention, where scientific findings can prevent an impending hardening of the position and thus promote a consensus that is conducive to climate protection.

A Fair and Solidarity-based EU Emissions Trading System for Buildings and Road Transport

Ariadne Report

Year 2022

Publication:Report

Experts from Ecologic Institute, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Stiftung Umweltenergierecht, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research and IER Stuttgart analyzed various options for the relief and level of the CO2 price – and identified advantages and disadvantages as well as implementation requirements of different design options. The focus is on two key political points of contention, where scientific findings can prevent an impending hardening of the position and thus promote a consensus that is conducive to climate protection. This German-language abridged version summarizes the findings.

Ein fairer und solidarischer EU-Emissionshandel für Gebäude und Straßenverkehr

Zusammenfassung

Year 2022

Event:Digital Event

With the Fit for 55 package, the European Commission made far-reaching proposals in July 2021 to align the architecture of European climate policy with the goal of climate neutrality. These proposals include the strengthening of the existing emissions trading scheme, the introduction of new emissions trading for transport and buildings, a border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to protect against carbon leakage and the tightening of regulatory instruments for transport and buildings. However, the proposals raise a number of questions – from distributional effects and acceptance to the consistency of the instruments. In the course of this two-day hybrid event, researchers from the Ariadne consortium discussed these issues with stakeholders and decision-makers at the European level.

Making the EU Fit for 55

Insights from and questions for the Ariadne project

25 - 26 November 2021
online, Brussels, Belgium

Funding: Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany
Organizer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany

Ecologic Institute, Germany
Speaker: Benjamin Görlach
Team: Philip Katz
Date: 30 November 2022, 1:30-3:00 pm
Location: online
Language: English
Project: Evidence-based Assessment for the Design of the German Energy Transition (Ariadne)
Project ID: 30003
Keywords: Climate

Economics

Further Links

Ariadne project website (German)

Adaptation
Agriculture
Arctic
Biodiversity
Bioeconomy
Cities
Climate
Climate Foreign Policy
Coastal + Marine
Communication
Consumer Policy
Culture + Ecology
Digitalization
EU
Economics
Education
Energy
Environmental Law – Ecologic Legal
Evaluation
Events
Finance
Food
Foreign Policy
Governance
Health
Indicators
Industry
International Development
Land Use
Mobility
Nature-based Solutions and Green Infrastructure
Plastics
Public Diplomacy
Resource Conservation + Circular Economy
Trade
Water