Models, Potentials and Long-Term Scenarios for Resource Efficiency (SimRess)
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The SimRess project analyzes the potential effectiveness of policy measures and mixes in the field of resource policy. Considering a time horizon through 2050, the project interprets model simulation results from both a system dynamics model and an econometric model. The modeling process informs policy recommendations, and might, therefore, contribute to further developing the national resource efficiency program ProgRess [pdf, 2,5MB, English].
The models may explore topics such as: domestic and abroad resource use, GDP, or job creation. The models integrate national, European, and global trends and projections, in addition to context scenarios from the project PolRess.
SimRess builds off of two established models – the system-dynamics model – WORLD by Lund University and the econometrics model – GINFORS, by GWS mbH. These proven models set national resource use in a global context. Another aim of the SimRess project is to enhance the models to compare outputs up until 2030, and to identify ways to exchange information between the two models. Quantitative analysis follows from the modeling results.
On the SimRess project, Ecologic Institute is responsible for conducting trend analyses and identifying relevant resource policy measures. As project coordinators, the Institute also organizes the final conference.
Project results:
- Article: Contemporary Resource Policy and Decoupling Trends: Lessons Learnt from Integrated Model-Based Assessments
- UBA Brochure: Ressourcenschonung als Zukunftsaufgabe: Ansatzpunkte für eine systemische Ressourcenpolitik
- UBA Publication: Potentiale und Kernergebnisse der Simulationen von Ressourcenschonung(spolitik): Endbericht des Projekts „Modelle, Potentiale und Langfristszenarien für Ressourceneffizienz“ (Sim-Ress)
- UBA Publication: Langfristszenarien und Potenziale zur Ressourceneffizienz in Deutschland im globalen Kontext – quantitative Abschätzungen mit dem Modell GINFORS
- UBA Publication: The WORLD Model Development and The Integrated Assessment of the Global Natural Resources Supply
- UBA Publication: System analysis for environmental policy – System thinking through system dynamic modelling and policy mixing as used in the SimRess project: Models, potential and long-term scenarios for resource efficiency (SimRess)
- UBA Brochure: Looking to the future: Trend report for a forward-looking resource policy
- UBA Brochure: Die Zukunft im Blick: Trendbericht für eine vorausschauende Ressourcenpolitik