Exploring 'Beyond Green Deal' Scenarios for the Policy Cycle 2024-2029 – What Role for the Environment and Sustainability?

With the adoption of the Fit-for-55 package and several other elements well progress (Nature Restoration Law, RePowerEU), the European Green Deal has taken shape. In light of the upcoming European elections and the start of a new policy cycle, the debate has picked up speed what the next steps could look like for the implementation of the European Green Deal, including a successor package to the Fit-for-55 package, as well as a 2040 climate target. At the same time, the political and economic context of European climate policy is changing rapidly – including geopolitical tensions and energy crisis emanating from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, climate change effects unfolding, a rise of authoritarian regimes, increased polarisation (including on climate issues) in many European countries, a turn to more interventionist industrial and trade policies e.g. in the US and China – but also continued maturation and cost degression of key technologies such as solar PV, wind, battery storage and electric vehicles.

Against this background, the EEA organised a foresight workshop on 12 October 2023 to discuss scenarios for EU environment and sustainability policy in the 2024-2029 policy cycle, with the aim of exploring possible future configurations of EU environment and climate policies and related implications. The results of the foresight workshop are also meant to inform the content and the characterisation of future policy scenarios in the 2024 edition of the EEA's Sustainability Transitions Outlook report. The Ecologic Instituted contributed to this process by supporting the concept development for the workshop, by facilitating two of four scenario groups at the foresight workshop, and by documenting outcomes. This included the development of four scenarios for the future development of the EU Green Deal, based on different assumptions about key drivers – one scenario driven by competitiveness and green growth, one by security and resilience, one by 'just' rather than 'fast' transitions, and the aspiration to leave no one behind, and one transforming through crises – the European ecological momentum.