Summary
Zusammenfassung
1 Introduction
1.1 Policy impacts in the National Energy and Climate Plans
1.2 Objective of this report
2 Methodological approach and analytical framework
2.1 Selection of NECPs and related focus topics
2.1.1 Selection of relevant NECPs
2.1.2 Identification of investigated focus topics
2.1.3 Identification of relevant literature
2.2 Developing the analytical framework
2.3 Selection of policy instruments and application of criteria
2.3.1 Screening of the NECP with respect to the selected focus topics
2.3.2 Identification of the relevant PaMs and selection of the policy instrument(s) to be evaluated
2.3.3 Review of the scientific literature on impact of climate policies under the focus topics
2.3.4 Selection of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations
2.3.5 Application of the analytical framework
3 Summary of the results from the review of policy impacts
3.1 Overview of the number and scope of the identified ex-ante and ex-post evaluations
3.1.1 Overview on topics and Member States
3.2 Carbon and energy pricing in Denmark, Germany and Sweden
3.2.1 Impacts on GHG emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable expansion
3.2.2 Socio-economic impacts
3.2.3 Systemic and methodological uncertainties
3.2.4 Conflicts and synergies with a just transition
3.3 Renewable heating and cooling in France, Germany and Slovenia
3.3.1 Impacts on GHG emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable expansion
3.3.2 Socio-economic impacts
3.3.3 Systemic and methodological uncertainties
3.3.4 Conflicts and synergies with reducing air pollution and other targets
3.4 Energy-efficient buildings
3.4.1 Impacts on GHG emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable expansion
3.4.2 Socio-economic impacts
3.4.3 Systemic and methodological uncertainties
3.4.4 Conflicts and synergies with labour markets
3.5 Agricultural soils
3.5.1 Impacts on GHG emission reduction
3.5.2 Socio-economic impacts
3.5.3 Systemic and methodological uncertainties
3.5.4 Conflicts and synergies
4 What is (not) known about the impacts of policies and measures in the NECPs
4.1 Impacts associated with climate and energy PaMs
4.1.1 Contributions of policy instruments to GHG emission reductions
4.1.2 Contributions of policy instruments to further objectives
4.2 Uncertainties of impacts
4.2.1 Methodological uncertainties of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations
4.2.2 Systemic uncertainties of ex-ante evaluations
4.2.3 Knowledge gaps due to lacking ex-ante and ex-post evaluations
4.2.4 Barriers to the realisation of PaM impacts in the field of energy-efficient buildings and renewable heating and cooling
4.2.5 Synergies and conflicts of climate action with other societal objectives
4.3 Lessons for the German NECP
4.3.1 Expectation on target achievement
4.3.2 Information needs for individual PaMs
4.3.3 Potential adoption of effective policies from other countries
4.4 Potential improvements of PaM reporting in the NECPs
5 Conclusions and recommendations
5.1 How to improve the knowledge basis for transparent NECP updates
5.2 How to increase transparency about the selection of policies and expected impacts in the NECPs
5.3 How to increase transparency about uncertainties in the development and use of evaluations
5.4 How to foster more transparency by refining the integrated EU governance framework
6 List of References
A Annex: Application of the analytical framework to the selected NECPs and related evaluations
A.1 Carbon and energy pricing
A.1.1 Scientific insights in the impact of different carbon and energy pricing approaches
A.1.2 Availability and scope of studies
A.1.3 German NECP
A.1.4 Danish NECP
A.1.5 Swedish NECP
A.1.6 Overview of number of identified evaluations
A.1.7 Conflicts and synergies of carbon and energy pricing with a just transition
A.2 Renewable Heating and Cooling
A.2.1 Scientific insights in socio-economic constraints, potential hurdles and target-group-related factors for policy instruments targeting renewable heating and cooling
A.2.2 German NECP
A.2.3 French NECP
A.2.4 Slovenian NECP
A.2.5 Overview of number of identified evaluations
A.2.6 Conflicts and synergies of expanding renewable heating and cooling with the reduction of air pollution
A.3 Energy-efficient buildings
A.3.1 Scientific insights in socio-economic constraints, potential hurdles and target-group-related factors for policy instruments targeting energy-efficient buildings
A.3.2 German NECP
A.3.3 Slovenian NECP
A.3.4 Swedish NECP
A.3.5 Overview of number of identified evaluations
A.3.6 Conflicts and synergies of increasing the energy-efficiency of buildings with the job creation and qualification
A.4 Agricultural soils
A.4.1 German NECP
A.4.2 Danish NECP
A.4.3 Slovenian NECP
A.4.4 Overview of number of identified evaluations
A.4.5 Conflicts and synergies of soil-related mitigation measures
B Annex: Literature research
B.1 Context and objective
B.2 Methodology
B.2.1 Selection criteria
B.2.2 Categorisation criteria
B.2.3 Descriptive criteria
C Annex: Analytical framework
C.1 Categories and criteria covered by the analytical framework
C.2 General setup of the analytical framework
C.3 Test round of analytical framework