Preface

Acknowledgements

Summary

1 Introduction

1.1 The urgency of addressing the loss of biodiversity

1.2 The economics of biodiversity loss

1.3 The position of the COPI project in the policy life-cycle

1.4 Objectives and outcomes of the study

1.5 Structure of the report

2 The COPI methodology and Valuation Database

2.1    Introduction

2.2    The role of existing frameworks in the COPI analysis

2.2.1 The OECD Baseline Scenario

2.2.2 The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework

2.2.3 Indicators of Biodiversity change

2.2.4 Change in ecosystem services

2.2.5 Changes in economic value

2.3 The Valuation Database

2.3.1    Introduction

2.3.2    Methodology

2.3.3    The COPI Valuation Database - structure and available data

2.3.4    Values for ecosystem services across biomes

2.3.5    Insights – strengths, gaps, methods for using values, and needs

3 The Baseline Scenario

3.1    Introduction 

3.2    The Baseline Scenario: Drivers

3.2.1    Population

3.2.2    Economic developments 

3.2.3    Energy use

3.2.4    Agricultural production and consumption

3.2.5    Economic and social drivers of change in marine and coastal ecosystems

3.3 The Baseline Scenario: Pressures

3.3.1    Introduction 

3.3.2    Land use

3.3.3    Climate change

3.3.4    The nitrogen cycle

3.3.5    Pressures which are not included in the GLOBIO model

3.3.6    Pressures on the marine and coastal ecosystems

3.4 The Baseline scenario: policy landscape

3.4.1    Introduction

3.4.2    Policy landscape affecting trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services: Pro-biodiversity policies

3.4.3    Policy sectors with known negative effects on biodiversity

4 Changes in biodiversity

4.1    Introduction

4.2    Indicators of biodiversity change

4.2.1    Biodiversity measures and indicators

4.2.2    The Mean Species Abundance (MSA) indicator

4.3 Change in terrestrial biodiversity

4.3.1    Global developments

4.3.2    Biodiversity change by world region

4.3.3    Changes by Biome

4.4    Protected areas

4.5    Changes in marine biodiversity

4.5.1    Introduction

4.5.2    Global trends in Marine biodiversity

4.5.3    The current state of marine biodiversity

4.5.4    Marine biodiversity futures

4.6 Changes in coastal systems

4.6.1    Introduction

4.6.2    Trends in estuaries and salt marshes

4.6.3    Trends in mangroves

4.6.4    Trends in intertidal habitats, deltas, beaches, and dunes

4.6.5    Trends in coral reefs and atolls

4.7 Changes at the species level

4.7.1    The Red List Indicator

4.7.2    Impacts of invasive alien species

5 Changes in ecosystem services

5.1    Introduction

5.2    The mechanisms behind changes in ecosystem services.

5.2.1    Provisioning services

5.2.2    Regulating services 

5.2.3    Cultural services 

5.3 Ecosystem services, land cover and land use

5.3.1    Introduction 

5.3.2    State and trends in the levels of Provisioning Services

5.3.3    State and trends in Regulating services

5.3.4    State and trends in Cultural services

5.4 Trends in services in terrestrial biomes and landscapes

5.4.1    Introduction 

5.4.2    The land biomes

5.4.3    Inland    waters

5.4.4    Man-made landscapes 

5.5 Trends in ecosystem services in marine systems

5.5.1    Provisioning services

5.5.2    Cultural services 

5.5.3    Effects of changes in marine biodiversity

5.6 Trends in ecosystems services in coastal systems

5.6.1    Introduction 

5.6.2    Mangroves and coral reefs

5.7 Non-linearity and collapse in ecosystem response to pressures

5.7.1    Introduction 

5.7.2    Critical    thresholds 

5.7.3    Critical    trends 

5.7.4    Conclusions 

5.8    Invasive Alien Species and ecosystem services

5.9    Economic and social aspects

6 The Cost of Policy Inaction – in Monetary terms

6.1    Introduction 

6.2    Approach and coverage

6.2.1    The COPI analysis – core steps

6.2.2    COPI analysis – complementary areas

6.3 General COPI analysis of land-use change

6.3.1    Main    results 

6.3.2    Losses across regions

6.3.3    Losses across biomes

6.3.4    Losses and gains per ecosystem service type

6.3.5    The importance of change in quality of the ecosystems and ecosystem services

6.3.6    Key observations as to data inputs, methods, assumptions and interpretation

6.3.7    Insights on potential for the future

6.4 The valuation of forest ecosystem services

6.4.1    Introduction

6.4.2    Provisioning services 

6.4.3    Regulating services: carbon sequestration

6.5 Other values of ecosystem and biodiversity loss to complement the COPI land based analysis

6.5.1    Invasive alien species

6.5.2    Coral    Reefs 

6.5.3    Marine and coastal systems (based on MA, 2005b)

6.5.4    Freshwater habitats and wetlands

6.6 Synthesis across values

7 Conclusions and recommendations

7.1    Introduction 

7.2    Changes in Biodiversity

7.2    Notes on the methodologies

7.3    Recommendations:    Policy 

7.4    Recommendations:    research 

Annexes

I      The Valuation Database

II    Economic Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services: Methodology and Monetary Estimates

III   Invasive alien species and their global impacts