1 Introduction
2 Implementing the Paris Agreement – which long-term targets and emission budgets for the world?
2.1 Global emission budgets and trajectories associated with 2°C and 1.5°C
2.2 Negative emissions and overshooting
2.3 Implication for global emissions until 2030
3 EU emission budgets, trajectories and long-term targets
3.1 What are the necessary reductions for the EU?
3.2 What is the EU’s remaining emission budget for rest of the century?
3.3 Mind the gap (1): Has the EU adopted the necessary reduction targets?
3.4 Mind the Gap (2): Are ETS and non ETS emission budgets compatible with EU targets and overall EU emission budgets?
3.4.1 ETS and non ETS emission budgets until 2030: Compatible with EU 2030 targets and overall EU emission budgets?
3.4.2 ETS and non ETS emission budgets until 2050: Compatible with EU 2050 aspiration and overall EU emission budgets?
3.5 How to close the gap: Which EU reduction targets, trajectories and budgets?
4 2030 EU policy architecture – fit for 2050?
4.1 EU Emissions Trading System: What are the necessary reductions until 2050?
4.2 Non-ETS sectors: What are the necessary emission reductions for 2050?
4.3 Required negative emissions
4.3.1 LULUCF
4.3.2 Bioenergy-CCS and Direct Air Capture
5 Annexes
5.1 Annex 1: Required reductions in percentage points for 2050 and 2100 (IPCC AR 5)
5.2 Annex 2: Underlying calculations for Section 3.4
5.2.1 Calculating emissions in the ETS sector
5.2.2 Calculating the flexibility of different starting years in the non-ETS sector
6 Literature