Summary
1 Introduction
1.1 Introduction to the project
1.2 Scope and approach
1.3 Report structure
2 EV scenario design
2.1 Introduction
2.2 EV Scenario 1: The ‘most realistic’ estimates of WP 1-5
2.3 EV Scenario 2: ICE breakthrough
2.4 EV Scenario 3: EV breakthrough
3 Impact analysis
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Impact on vehicle sales and fleet
3.3 Impact on fuel and electricity demand, and final energy consumption
3.4 Impact on vehicle emissions
3.5 Impacts on electricity production
3.6 Overall impacts on emissions
3.7 Impacts on air quality
3.8 Impacts on noise emissions
3.9 Impacts on materials and waste
3.10 Economic impacts
3.11 Impacts on primary energy sources and imports of fossil fuels
4 Policy implications
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Vehicle regulation
4.3 Regulation of energy carriers
4.4 Fiscal policies
4.5 Policies related to charging infrastructure
4.6 Other policies
5 Conclusions and recommendations
5.1 Impact analysis
5.2 Policy implications
5.3 Recommendations for further study
References
Annex A Assumptions and input data for the scenarios
A.1 Data needed for the calculations
A.2 Input data Scenario 1
A.3 Input data Scenario 2
A.4 Input data Scenario 3
Annex B Impacts on electricity production – regional results
B.1 Scenario 1
B.2 Scenario 2
B.3 Scenario 3
Annex C Detailed results of the impact analysis
C.1 Vehicle sales
C.2 Car fleet
C.3 EVs in urban regions
Annex D Modelling methodology: MELVIN
D.1 Introduction
D.2 Outline of the scenario modelling tool
D.3 Tool overview
D.4 Reference Scenario
D.5 EV uptake modelling
D.6 From market uptake to vehicle shares
D.7 Calculation of the environmental impact
D.8 Economic analysis