LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
2 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY
2.1 Scenario development
2.2 Overview of studies developing scenarios and conducting assessments of future changes
2.3 Approach for choosing scenarios
2.4 Stakeholder consultation
2.4.1 Technical development
2.4.2 Socio-economic development
3 BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO
3.1 Global development trends
3.2 Cargo transport volumes
3.3 Maritime fleet development
3.4 Passenger traffic, passenger/cargo ferries
3.5 Cruisers
3.6 IHS Global Insight Scenario until 2030
3.6.1 Dry bulk trade 2011-2029
3.6.2 Dry bulk imports
3.6.3 Dry bulk exports
3.6.4 Trends in vessel sizes
3.6.5 Transport of passengers
3.6.6 Fuel trends
3.6.7 NOX technical code
3.6.8 Slow steaming
3.7 The BAU scenario in SHEBA
4 SINGLE SCENARIOS
4.1 Slow steaming scenario
4.2 Modal Shift from land to sea
4.3 NECA 2021
4.3.1 Background
4.3.2 Scenario construction
4.4 Zero emissions into water
4.5 LNG
4.5.1 Background
4.5.2 Scenario construction
4.6 Regulations for leisure boats
4.7 Port measures
5 CUMULATIVE SCENARIOS
5.1.1 SSP1 – Sustainability
5.1.2 SSP2 – Middle of the Road
5.1.3 SSP3 – Fragmentation
5.1.4 Summary of shipping developments in the SSPs
6 BIBLIOGRAPHY