Assessment: 2013 the Year Zero for Emobility?
Max Gruenig, Senior Fellow at Ecologic Institute, discussed during the "Congres des Collectivites Electromobiles" in Lille the situation of electric cars in Germany.
Key messages of his presentation were:
- Emobility in Germany is still rather an issue of research and development rather than sales and use.
- Research projects are manifold and cover all aspects, including safety.
- Only a mere 36% of new car sales in Germany are done by individuals, the remainder going to businesses, associations and public administration etc - bringing up the question whether the consumer should be the first target for promoting electric cars.
- In a model run with 720 scenarios, the full cost of ownership of electric vehicles are not cost-competitive compared to conventional vehicles from a consumer perspective.
- The costs of driving a diesel car are still the lowest in all scenarios.
- The best support mechanisms are those which target the sales price, since consumers are 'blind' with regards to future savings.
- Since technology evolves over time, this adds uncertainty to the cost modeling.
- Costs are not the only relevant factor: size, safety and comfort are also important.